AMBASSADOR JOHN CAMPBELL OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND THE 2011 NIGERIAN GENERAL ELECTION 

BY BEN SHEMANG

 

As Nigeria's 2011 elections draw nearer, commentators and political analysts have been predicting its possible outcome. While some see the forthcoming elections as a defining moment for the country to rewrite her history and assume her leadership position in Africa by conducting free, fair and acceptable elections, others see the 2011 elections as a keg of gun powder that will explode and throw Nigeria into chaos.

Amongst the people that are predicting this doom for Nigeria, should the elections fail to live up to expectations, is Ambassador John Campbell of the United States of America who had served in Nigeria from 2004 to 2007. Ambassador Campbell, a diplomat, a member of the American Council of Foreign Relations and a Senior Fellow for African Policy studies recently released excerpts from his yet- to- be published book entitled ‘Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink', indicating there is danger ahead in the coming polls.

In his words “The 2011 elections in Nigeria … pose a threat to the stability of the United States' most important partner in West Africa. The end of a power sharing arrangement between the Muslim North and Christian South;… could lead to post election sectarian violence, paralysis of the executive branch and even a coup”.

The Nigerian Government promptly dismissed Ambassador Campbell's tendentious and jaundiced opinion which is being reinforced here.

Even though Ambassador Campbell is entitled to his own opinion, such doomsday predictions are most unkind from a diplomat who lived in Nigeria for four years and ought to be in the best position to advise his home government which Nigeria is modelling its democracy after, on how best to assist Nigeria conduct credible and successful election.

It is disappointing that Ambassador Campbell could show little knowledge of the diversity of Nigeria by referring to the North of the country as Muslim North and the South as Christian South – forgetting that in Nigeria today, there is no single state that is entirely Christians or Muslims. It is not surprising therefore for such a respected diplomat to make such alarmists predictions because he does not quite know the country he served in for four years. For him to suggest the crisis he is predicting could lead to a coup is the most unacceptable comments that a democratic Nigeria could take from a diplomat of such repute.

Nigeria's journey through the ages can not be said to be a perfect one. Like any other Nation, it has gone through the good, rough, the ugly and the turbulent waves of the waters of development. When all hope seems lost, Nigeria bounces back stronger and it will not be any different in the coming elections.

That is the Nigerian spirit –call it resilience. For instance during the dark days of General Sani Abacha's regime, most people never thought that the country known as Nigeria would remain in existence. Alas, the nation did not only outlive Abacha but is now waxing stronger with the deepening of its democratic institutions.

The country has witnessed a successful transition from one Civilian President to another. President Obasanjo successfully handed over power to Yar'Adua in 2007. When President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua died earlier in the year, there was also a smooth and successful succession.

All hopes are not lost in Nigeria, despite the political differences being exhibited by politicians in the country which is normal in all democracies. It was therefore not surprising that the Secretary General of the Commonwealth Kamalesh Sharma expressed optimism and hopes of a better Nigeria come 2011. In a statement on Nigeria's preparations for next year's elections, the Secretary General described the 2011 elections in Nigeria as a momentous opportunity to deepen democratic practice and uphold commonwealth values.

Mr. Sharma described Nigeria as a valued member of the Commonwealth and the largest member in Africa which is playing a leading role in a variety of ways in West Africa and beyond. He said it was in the interest of not only Nigerians but the whole of Africa, the commonwealth and the international community that democracy thrives in Nigeria. Such words of encouragement from those genuinely interested in Nigeria's future and not doomsday prophesies is what is expected at this point in time.

However, it is good that the content of Ambassador Campbell's book came out ahead of time. Nigerians should rise above all that is predicted by Mr. Campbell and put the doubting Thomas's to shame by conducting a credible and peaceful election next year.

There is already a pointer to this. President Goodluck Jonathan has demonstrated integrity with the appointment of an activist for good governance; Professor Attahiru Jega to conduct the 2011 elections. The euphoria that greeted his appointment gives the hope that Nigeria will conduct a free and fair election that will be a model for other African countries to follow.

 

BROADCAST ON FRIDAY 8 TH OCTOBER 2010