Palestinians Plan First Census In A Decade
Palestinians
are preparing to conduct their first census in a decade, hoping
the results will help them in future peace talks with Israel.
Later this week, about
5,000 census-takers will disperse across the West Bank and the
Gaza Strip, first to count buildings, and in December, to count
the people. The results are expected by February, 2008.
"We hope we can use these
statistics in the negotiations…It's
not only important for the political process, but also for
building the institutions of the state," Palestinian negotiator,
Saeb Erekat, a supporter of moderate Palestinian President
Mahmoud Abbas and his Ramallah-based administration said.
Significance
Demographics play a central role in the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict. Rapid Palestinian growth would bolster Palestinian
territorial demands, while Israelis' fear of being outnumbered
in areas they now control might make them more willing to
consider a West Bank withdrawal.
The
militant group Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, has also
said the census results are important and that it will
cooperate.
How Many
The first Palestinian
census, conducted in 1997, counted 2.89 million Palestinians in
the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem, the territories Israel
captured in the 1967 Mid East War.
According to estimates by
the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, the figure now
stands at 3.9 million.
Some
Israeli critics have dismissed the 1997 figures and the current
projections as inflated, a charge denied by Palestinian census
officials, who say the counts are being conducted under
international scrutiny.
Fears
Palestinians have one of the highest birth rates in the world,
forcing Israel to consider the possibility that Jews, despite
ongoing Jewish immigration, will one day be a minority in
historic Palestine, the area between the Jordan River and the
Mediterranean.
In December 2006, Israel's
population included 5.4 million Jews, 1.4 million Arabs and
310,000 others, according to Israeli government figures.
Demographic
concerns are often cited by those in Israel who want to withdraw
from some of the lands Israel occupied in the 1967 Mid East War.
It also was a key factor in former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's
decision to withdraw from Gaza in 2005.
The Survey
Census officials said the
survey will cost $8.6 million, with the Palestinian Authority
paying 20 percent. The rest comes from a U.N. agency, Saudi
Arabia, the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, the
Netherlands and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries.
An official
with the U.N. Population Fund, Hafedh Chkeir, said his agency
trusts the work of the Palestinian census agency. He also said
the U.N. is trying to bring in some Arab experts based in
Jordan, but they have not yet received visas from Israel.
From
Saturday, census-takers will start affixing numbers to homes,
business and other buildings as Palestinians are being urged to
cooperate and not to remove the numbers.
Peace
Process
Israeli-Palestinian peace talks have been frozen since a failed
summit in Year 2000, but new momentum has been building.
Negotiating teams from both sides are trying to draft a joint
statement of principles that is to be presented to a U.S.-hosted
peace conference later this year, possibly the launching pad for
new talks.
The first
census was conducted at a relatively quiet time, with hopes
still running high that the two sides were on their way to a
final peace deal. However, since then, years of bloody fighting
have reshaped the area.
The
Palestinians now have two rival governments, one run by Hamas in
Gaza and the other by Western-backed moderates in the West Bank.
The Last Outing
During the
last census, Israel did not permit a head count in the Arab
neighbourhoods of East Jerusalem, claimed by the Palestinians as
a future capital, prompting census-takers to draw estimates for
that area using 1995 Israeli figures. Israel said at the time
that a Palestinian census there was a challenge to its
sovereignty in the city.
It is not
clear whether Israel would permit a census in East Jerusalem
this year.
AP/MIA
